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<title>Educated Guesswork</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/" />
<modified>2008-05-11T03:57:25Z</modified>
<tagline></tagline>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1</id>
<generator url="http://www.movabletype.org/" version="4.1">Movable Type</generator>
<copyright>Copyright (c) 2008, ekr</copyright>

<entry>
<title> Red Carpet Club WiFi</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/05/red_carpet_club.html" />
<modified>2008-05-11T03:57:25Z</modified>
<issued>2008-05-11T03:56:16Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1187</id>
<created>2008-05-11T03:56:16Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Danny McPherson posts about his experience with the free WiFi in the Unied Red Carpet Club: More interesting is perhaps the access model they employ. To login, all you need is the United Mileage Plus number of the primary Red...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>SYSSEC</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[Danny McPherson
<A HREF="http://asert.arbornetworks.com/2008/05/red-carpet-club-free-wifi/">posts</A>
about his experience with the free WiFi in the Unied Red Carpet Club:
<BLOCKQUOTE>
More interesting is perhaps the access model they employ. To login,
all you need is the United Mileage Plus number of the primary Red
Carpet Club account holder. Now, having long questioned the wisdom of
a luggage tag that displays these numbers, be it a "hole-punched"
Mileage Plus membership card, or a more obvious oval-shaped Red Carpet
Club tag, I'm even more wary now. But if you're in bind and need your
airport wireless fix, odds are you won't have to walk far to find one
available for the taking. As a matter of fact, I see two from where
I'm sitting right now.
<P>
I've yet to explore how difficult it would be to exhaustive search for
valid numbers, or if multiple logins are permitted at a given time, or
how far outside of the Red Carpet Club these numbers are valid, or... I
also wonder how long it'll be until some poor schmuck is arrested for
allegedly downloading child porn from an airport wireless network...
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
If this were a wired network this wouldn't be a security problem. After all,
if you're inside the RCC, presumably you're an RCC member
(unless you bought a day pass), in which case you should be
entitled to use the network. But as Danny indicates, the wireless
AP is probably accessible from outside the RCC, so if you sit
outside the club, you should be able to get on the network,
making it just a matter of having a valid mileage plus number,
which you can get off of someone's luggage tag.
<P>
As far as exhaustive search goes, MP numbers are 11 digits long,
but the first digit seems to always be zero, so this is a
10 digit space. I don't know how many RCC members there are,
but Wikipedia claims that there are about 750,000 Premier and
Premier Executive members, so let's say there are on the order
of 200,000 RCC members, or 2*10^{-5} of the space. If the
numbers are randomly distributed, you'd need to search about
100,000 numbers in order to find one. This could take quite
some time (over a day at one per second). You might be able to
get some leverage because the distribution isn't random. They
seem to be issued in some kind of increasing sequence,
though there seem to be too many numbers for it to be strictly
sequential. If there's a check digit like in credit card numbers
this would make the space a lot easier to search. (If someone 
knows the actual algorithm, please write in.) Of course,
you only need to know a few valid numbers, so this might not
be a totally prohibitive attack if reading it off someone's
tag weren't so easy.
<P>
Three more thoughts:
<UL>
<LI>RCC entry itself is a lot more valuable than access to the
wireless, since the wireless access doesn't cost United much,
but access to the club costs them food and (in the International
terminal), free drinks. I assume it's not hard 
forge an MP card once you know a valid number. I'm not an RCC
member so usually when I'm there it's on the "international ticket" + Star
Alliance Gold exception, so they check my ticket, which is hard to
forge. Do they insist on seeing your ticket if you're an RCC member?
If not, this is actually a new attack vector on the RCC, since
it would let you extract numbers even if it weren't easy to read
them off other people's luggage.
<LI>There's actually a fairly easy way to secure the system
against remote attacks (ones that don't involve somehow
gaining access to the RCC interior) that wouldn't require
lining the RCC walls with copper sheeting. For the first
login to the RCC network, require not just your RCC #,
but also a random passcode given to people on entrance
(or maybe posted on the wall). After that, you can install
a cookie on their computers and just let them on without
a new login. <small><sup>1</sup></small>
<LI>I'm a bit curious how the system checks for RCC number
validity. Does it have a local copy of the RCC database? Is it
connected to United's central systems? That could be interesting.
</UL>
<P>
<small><sup>1</sup> See 
<A HREF="http://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-rescorla-stateless-tokens-01">draft-rescorla-stateless-tokens</A> for a description of some techniques 
for avoiding the need for a centralized cookie database.
</small>]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>Notes on P2P Blocking and Evasion</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/05/notes_on_p2p_bl.html" />
<modified>2008-05-09T17:19:53Z</modified>
<issued>2008-05-09T17:19:53Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1186</id>
<created>2008-05-09T17:19:53Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">In preparation for the IETF P2P Infrastructure Workshop, I&apos;ve revised and expanded this post into a &quot;position paper submission. Introduction In mid-2007 it was revealed [4] that Comcast was blocking peer-to-peer traffic (most famously BitTorrent) on their network by injecting...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>Networking</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[In preparation for the 
<A HREF="http://www.ietf.org/mail-archive/web/p2psip/current/msg04081.html">IETF P2P Infrastructure Workshop</A>, I've revised and expanded this <A HREF="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2007/10/traffic_blockin.html">post</A> into a "position paper submission.
<P>
<BLOCKQUOTE>
Introduction
<P>
In mid-2007 it was revealed [4] that Comcast was blocking peer-to-peer
traffic (most famously BitTorrent) on their network by injecting RST
packets to terminate TCP [7] connections. The BitTorrent community
almost immediately discovered carrying BitTorrent over an encrypted
tunnel (VPN or SSH) was not subject to blocking, thus completing
another cycle of the ongoing arms race between peer-to-peer
implementors and network operators. This paper explores some
predictable next moves in the game and their consequences for the
network.
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
This isn't intended to be comprehensive, because the request was for short
papers, but I think it hits the high points. You can find the full note <A HREF="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/p2pi.pdf">here</A>.
]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title> MS Word wants to open a port on your machine... wait what?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/05/ms_word_wants_t.html" />
<modified>2008-05-09T04:56:47Z</modified>
<issued>2008-05-09T04:54:24Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1185</id>
<created>2008-05-09T04:54:24Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Even the most diehard TeXhead has moments when he needs to read some Word document. Tonight was such a night and I have Office 2004 on my machine for just such an eventuality (Please don&apos;t write in to tell me...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>SYSSEC</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[Even the most diehard TeXhead has moments when he needs to
read some Word document. Tonight was such a night and 
I have Office 2004 on my machine for just such an eventuality
(Please don't write in to tell me that I should run
Pages. As I said, I don't want to run either of them, but
I also don't want to deal with Pages/Word incompatibility.)
Anyway, I boot up Word and the Leopard firewall asks me
if I'd like to let Word listen for network connections.
I go to click no and either manage to click it or raise
some other window or something. The dialog disappears and
when I check the firewall it sure does say to block 
MS Word. So, that's OK, I guess.
<P>
And then I get to thinking, "Why is Word opening
up TCP listening ports anyway?" So, I run 
<code>netstat -a | grep LISTEN</code> and get:
<PRE>
[49] /usr/sbin/netstat -a | grep LISTEN
tcp4       0      0  *.3369                 *.*                    LISTEN
...
</PRE>
<P>
Hmmm. What's 3369? Google doesn't know, so that's not good.
I close Word and the port goes away and lsof confirms it's 
Word:
<PRE>
[52] /usr/sbin/lsof -i TCP:3369

COMMAND  PID USER   FD   TYPE    DEVICE SIZE/OFF NODE NAME
Word    8198  ekr   16u  IPv4 0x6c4d66c      0t0  TCP *:3369 (LISTEN)
</PRE>
<P>
I shut down Word and my WiFi and restart it, but it's not
listening now. Maybe I need the network on. Sure enough, I bring
the WiFi back up and restart Word and now it's listening, but on
a different port: 3828 this time. Stranger and stranger. 
Now ordinarily this would only be about a 4.0 freakout on a scale 
of 1 to 10, but it turns out that I only recently installed
Office on this machine and was unaware of the following
delightful property of MS AutoUpdate: it only installs one update
at a time, no matter how many updates are pending. So, when you
have 10-20 updates to install, and you're just letting update
run itself, it takes forever to get uprev. The consequence of
this is that I was loading random people's documents with some
two year old (and vulnerable) version of Word. Who knows what
malware I've had the joy of installing. This jacks
things up to a freakout factor of about 6.2.
<P>
Next step: compare to another machine. It shows up on my
other Mac, which is a little comforting, but of course that
machine could be infected too. I double check with Hovav, who
is about as paranoid as I am, 
and his copy of Office is is listening, but on some other
random port. That's sort of comforting. This is starting to look
a lot less like malware and a lot more like a feature of Word.
A little more digging
tells us the process name that is actually doing the listening.
It's Word (as I knew) but with some wacky argument starting
with <code>-psn_0_...</code>. Searching on this, we find out
that I'm not the only person who has had this <A HREF="http://www.mackb.com/Uwe/Forum.aspx/mac-apps/5042/Microsoft-Word-X-opens-a-listening-TCP-port">question</A>.
<BLOCKQUOTE>
If you close UDP 2222, then no other computers will know which TCP
port your copy of word has chosen to listen to (in the 3000-3999
range), because that info is broadcasted in the UDP packets. The
protocol is thus: Your copy of word spews it's serial number (encoded)
and the TCP port it is listening on in a packed on UDP 2222. Other
copies of word on the network get this packet and then respond the
your copy of word on the specified TCP port if they have the same
serial. Then one copy shuts down.
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
I guess it was malware after all. Outstanding!]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>Yes, many TCP connections end in RSTs</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/05/yes_many_tcp_co.html" />
<modified>2008-05-02T15:56:18Z</modified>
<issued>2008-05-02T14:36:14Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1184</id>
<created>2008-05-02T14:36:14Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">George Ou made this argument at the FCC En Banc hearing at Stanford on 4/25 (A/V here). It&apos;s actually quite common throughout the world that TCP RSTs are used. ... Speaking of the 1:45 AM resets, ISPs all over the...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>Networking</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[George Ou made this argument at the 
FCC <A HREF="http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-281298A1.pdf">En Banc hearing</A>
at Stanford on 4/25 (A/V <A HREF="http://www.fcc.gov/fcc-bin/bye?http://www.vontv.net/events/080417/">here</A>).
<BLOCKQUOTE>
It's actually quite common throughout the world that TCP RSTs
are used.
<P>
...
<P>
Speaking of the 1:45 AM resets, 
ISPs all over the world, they've found that up to 12% of sessions
get reset, all over the world. It's almost like there's this 
12% of background noise of TCP resets that are happening that
may not be coming from comcast but could be coming from any
device on the Internet, all routers, all firewalls
support that feature and we don't really know where it's coming
from.
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
Here's ATT's <A
HREF="http://gullfoss2.fcc.gov/prod/ecfs/retrieve.cgi?native_or_pdf=pdf&id_document=6519998811">response</A>
to Vuze's claim that they use RSTs for "network management purposes"
(i.e., terminating connections they don't like):
<P>
<BLOCKQUOTE>
In response to your specific question about AT&T's network management
practices, AT&T does not use "false reset messages" to manage its
network. We agree with Vuze that the use of the Vuze Plug-In to
measure network traffic has numerous limitations and deficiencies, and
does not demonstrate whether any particular network providers or their
customers are using TCP Reset messages for network management
purposes. Given that Vuze itself has recognized these problems with
the measurements generated by its Plug-In, we believe that Vuze should
not have published these misleading measurements, nor filed them with
the FCC. Moreover, as Vuze and others have acknowledged, TCP resets
are generated for many reasons wholly unrelated to the network
management practices of broadband network providers, which explains
why resets may appear on networks of companies such as AT&T who do not
use TCP resets for network management (see, e.g., An Analysis ofTCP
Reset Behaviour on the Internet, University of Calgary (2004)). 
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
I've reviewed the <A HREF="http://pages.cpsc.ucalgary.ca/%7Ecarey/papers/2005/TCP-Resets.pdf">paper</A> by Arlitt and Williamson to which AT&T is 
referring (Ou didn't cite his sources), and while it's
interesting work, I don't think it really speaks to Ou's argument.
The RSTs that Arlitt and Williamson are talking about are primarily 
ungraceful
terminations of TCP connections that would be ending anyway. The
authors suggest a number of cases here:
<UL>
<LI>Servers aggressively closing connections after short idle
times, but the client already has a request in flight and
the server responds with an RST.
<LI>Clients responding to FINs from the server with an
RST. The reasons for this are a bit unclear.
<LI>Servers closing connections with RSTs.
<LI>Connections to servers which aren't listening on a given
port and so are rejecting it.
</UL>
<P>
In all of these cases but the last, 
though, the Web transactions are actually
over, so while there may be some negative effects from not going
through the correct TCP finish handshake (cf. <A HREF="http://www.faqs.org/rfcs/rfc1337.html">RFC 1337</A>), neither side perceives this as failed
transactions. And in the final case, the server explicitly
is rejecting the connection, so this seems appropriate as well.
It's also fairly straightforward to distinguish these cases
as a passive observer (as the authors have done) with the
appropriate tools.
<P>
What Comcast has done, however, is something different: they
were (are?) using RSTs to abort other people's transactions. 
The base rate of normal RSTs isn't really that useful for assessing
the appropriateness of third party RSTs as a network traffic
management technique. As a hypothetical, imagine that Comcast
were forging FINs instead of RSTs. One could expand Ou's argument
to say "FINs are a natural feature of the Internet", but it doesn't
really follow that it's desirable to have third parties forging
FINs on your connections. 
<P>
It does bear, on the other hand, on what we can infer from Vuze's
<A HREF="http://cache2.vuze.com/docs/internet_future/First_Results_from_Vuze_Network_Monitoring_Tool.pdf">data</A>.
Vuze hasn't really published that many details of their methodology,
but they claim to be measuring the total number of RSTs, 
not just those of Azureus/Bittorrent connections
<strike>(Incidentally, I'm not sure how I'd feel as a user
about installing some app that sniffed all the traffic on
my network and sent statistics to Vuze)</strike><I>[-- see update below; EKR]</I>:
<BLOCKQUOTE>
The Vuze Plug\u2010In constantly monitors the rate of network 
interruptions occurring from RST ("reset") packets by 
measuring the total number of attempted network connections 
and the total number of network connections that were 
interrupted by a reset message. By comparing these two 
values, one can calculate the ratio of network connections 
interrupted by reset messages.  We have chosen to reflect 
the median 
ratio in order to reduce variability in the data given the sample size. 
<P>
The Plug\u2010In collects data for all Internet connections, not 
just connections occurring 
due to use of the Vuze application, and logs it every ten minutes Then, at the top of the 
hour, the Plug\u2010In aggregates the data into one\u2010hour blocks 
and transmits it to Vuze, Inc..   By definition, each 
source of data had the Vuze application installed and 
launched in order connections. 
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
But if you're measuring all RSTs and not attempting to determine
which ones are "normal" and which ones represent connection
failure, then it's not clear how representative your data is.
It is sort of interesting how much variation (about an order
of magnitude from 2.5% to 24%) there is in terms
the rate of RSTs, but as Iljitsch van Beijnum <A HREF="http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080422-vuze-says-some-isps-abuse-tcp-resets-data-not-that-clearcut.html">observes</A>, this could be the result of caching
proxies and the like in the network. You may not particularly
want your ISP interposing a proxy, but that's a different
question than whether they're actually blocking your P2P traffic.
<P>
This isn't the only possible reason, either. For instance, users
might just have different software profiles. Given that 
Vuze claims to have 8000 users on 1200 ASs (with the data
being reported for ASs with greater than 20 users, there could well
just be a lot of statistical variation. Some evidence of this is
that the results from Comcast alone span from 14% to 24%).
In order to really make sense of data like Vuze's we'd need to
try to distinguish normal RSTs from those injected in the network,
which requires more forensics (TTL inspection, IP ID, etc.) 
than Vuze's paper describes.
<P>
<B>UPDATE (8:49 AM):</B> I was wrong about this needing to be a packet sniffer. I just read the source (<A HREF="http://azureus.sourceforge.net/plugin_details.php?plugin=aznetmon">here</A>; thanks to Danny McPherson for pointing out that I could download it.)
They're just using netstat to read the network statistics and grabbing the reset counter
out of the results. On the other hand, this means that they're not even in principle
able to differentiate between RSTs generated on Azureus connections and those
on other connections or between those generated by some man in the middle or
by endpoints. While the variation in reported RSTs remains interesting, you'd need a significantly more advanced tool than this to really diagnose what's going on.]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title> Natural resistance to testosterone testing</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/05/natural_resista.html" />
<modified>2008-05-02T04:16:03Z</modified>
<issued>2008-05-02T04:14:24Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1183</id>
<created>2008-05-02T04:14:24Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">In the NYT, Gina Kolata reports on a study that found that a substantial number of athletes show negative results on urine tests for testosterone, even when they&apos;re doping: The 55 men in a drug doping study in Sweden were...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>Pharma</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[In the NYT, Gina Kolata <A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/sports/30doping.html?ref=science">reports</A> on a study that found that a substantial
number of athletes show negative results on urine tests for 
testosterone, even when they're doping:
<BLOCKQUOTE>
The 55 men in a drug doping study in Sweden were normal and
healthy. And all agreed, for the sake of science, to be injected with
testosterone and then undergo the standard urine test to screen for
doping with the hormone.
<P>
The results were unambiguous: the test worked for most of the men,
showing that they had taken the drug. But 17 of the men tested
negative. Their urine seemed fine, with no excess testosterone even
though the men clearly had taken the drug.
<P>
It was, researchers say, a striking demonstration of a genetic
discovery. Those 17 men can build muscles with testosterone, they
respond normally to the hormone, but they are missing both copies of a
gene used to convert the testosterone into a form that dissolves in
urine. The result is that they may be able to take testosterone with
impunity.
<P>
...
<P>
Men with the gene deletion still metabolize testosterone, Dr. Schulze
says. But, she adds, she does not know where the hormone goes. "We
have no idea," she said. "That's what we're trying to find out."
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
If you've got this gene deletion, you've potentially got an
enormous advantage in terms of being able to dope without
getting caught. Even for those who don't have the gene deletion,
I wonder whether there's some chemistry you could use to
force testosterone metabolism down whatever alternate pathway
is involved here (or alternately to disable the standard pathway),
producing a masking effect for even those with normal
genetic profiles. ]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>More on heparin</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/04/more_on_heparin.html" />
<modified>2008-05-01T05:01:59Z</modified>
<issued>2008-05-01T05:01:59Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1182</id>
<created>2008-05-01T05:01:59Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Nick Weaver pointed me to this article in the NYT about the heparin incident. The FDA seems to be heading towards a theory that the contamination was deliberate (as I observed in my original post on this, though I&apos;m not...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>Pharma</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[Nick Weaver pointed me to this <A
HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/health/policy/30heparin.html?em&ex=1209700800&en=2c7f1b380ee3057e&ei=5087%0A">article</A>
in the NYT about the heparin incident. The FDA seems to be heading towards
a theory that the contamination was deliberate (as I observed
in my <A HREf="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/03/making_sense_of.html">original post</A>
on this, though I'm not claiming that the idea is original to me). 
Here's the key bit:
<BLOCKQUOTE>
"F.D.A.'s working hypothesis is that this was intentional
contamination, but this is not yet proven," Dr. Janet Woodcock,
director of the Food and Drug Administration's drug center, told
the House Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations in written
testimony given Tuesday.
<P>
A third of the material in some batches of the thinner heparin were
contaminants, "and it does strain one's credulity to suggest
that might have been done accidentally," Dr. Woodcock said.
<P>
...
<P>
The F.D.A. has identified Changzhou SPL, a Chinese subsidiary of
Scientific Protein Laboratories, as the source of the contaminated
heparin. A Congressional investigator said the contaminant,
oversulfated chondroitin sulfate, cost $9 a pound compared with $900 a
pound for heparin.
<P>
Mr. Strunce said that his company tried to find the original source of
the contamination but was stopped by the Chinese authorities.
<P> Robert L. Parkinson, Baxter's chairman and chief executive,
told the committee, "We're alarmed that one of our products
was used in what appears to have been a deliberate scheme to
adulterate a life-saving medication."
<P>
Chinese officials have disputed the F.D.A. contention that the
contaminant caused death and injury, and they have insisted on the
right to inspect American drug plants if the F.D.A. insists on
inspecting Chinese ones.
</BLOCKQUOTE>

<P>
Again, when you're close to some equilibrium of high compliance,
inspections are an important part of maintaining that equilibrium.
However, if you're far away from that equilibrium, i.e., you're
dealing with people who regularly don't comply, you need an
entirely different enforcement regime with much stricter checking.
If there's no punishment for noncompliance (which sounds like the
case here), then it's extremely difficult to make any regime
work in the face of someone who's actively trying to cheat you,
since there's little cost for them trying. That said, one might think
that if Americans have been poisoned and the Chinese government is
stonewalling the investigation, that this might be something the
US government could push aggressively on.
<P>
Incidentally, I'm not sure there is a the symmetry between US inspections of
Chinese plants and Chinese inspections of US plants. It's not
crazy to want to inspect the plants that produce your imports
(it's not scalable if everyone wants to do it, but this is presumably
delegatable to some extent, as with <A HREF="http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a1_343.html">Reg. Dept. Penna. Agr.</A>),
but that doesn't necessarily extend to a reciprocal right to inspect
random plants in other countries unless you're doing a lot of importing
from them. China represented about $94 million dollars in US Pharmaceutical
exports in 2004 <A HREF="http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d06162.pdf">[*]</A>.
And of course this becomes more important if there's
evidence that whatever mechanisms are being employed in the other country
aren't working. Have any Chinese been poisoned by defective American drugs?




]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>How to annotate?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/04/how_to_annotate.html" />
<modified>2008-04-30T05:05:54Z</modified>
<issued>2008-04-30T04:36:00Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1181</id>
<created>2008-04-30T04:36:00Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain"><![CDATA[I'm currently working my way through Lolita (Appel annotated edition) and finding the annotation a bit heavy. Here's a not-so-randomly chosen but not-totally-unrepresentative page from the endonotes: 158/6 Christopher columbus' flagship: the zoo exists, in Evansville, Indiana. Its monkeys&mdash;kept out-of-doors...]]></summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>Misc</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[I'm currently working my way through 
<A HREF="http://www.amazon.com/Annotated-Lolita-Revised-Updated/dp/0679727299/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1209523777&sr=8-2">Lolita (Appel annotated edition)</A> and finding the annotation a bit heavy. Here's a 
not-so-randomly chosen but not-totally-unrepresentative page from the
endonotes:
<BLOCKQUOTE>
158/6 <I>Christopher columbus' flagship:</I> the zoo exists,
in Evansville, Indiana. Its monkeys&mdash;kept out-of-doors
on the ship from April to November&mdash;continue to be the
zoo's most popular attraction.
<P>
158/7  <I>Little Rock, near a school:</I> rereading this
passage in 1968, Nabokov called it "nicely prophetic" (the
larger "row" over school desegregation, 
September 1957). For further "prophecy," see 226/3.
<P>
158/8 <I>&agrave; propos de rien:</I> French; not in relation
to anything else; casually.
<P>
159/1 <I>town... first name:</I> "his" refers to Quilty, Clare,
Michigan; an actual town.
<P>
159/2 <I>species ... Homo pollex:</I> H.H. combines the familiar
Latin <I>homo,</I> "the genus of mammals consisting of mankind,"
with <I>pollex,</I> or "thumb."
<P>
159/3 <I>viatic:</I> H.H. sustains his "scientific" vocabulary;
a coinage from the Latin root <I>via. Viaticum</I> is English&mdash;an
allowance for travelling expenses&mdash;but H.H. has gone back to
the Latin word <I>viaticus,</I> which specifically refers to the
road.
<P>
159/4 <I>priapically:</I> from Priapus, the god of procreation.
<P>
159/6 <I>man of my age...face &agrave; claques:</I> Quilty, 
with "a face that deserves to be slapped; an ugly mischevious
face." For an index to his appearances see 31/9.
<P>
159/6 <I>concupiscence:</I> lustfullness.
<P>
159/7 <I>coulant un regard:</I> French; casting a sly glance.
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
This is a bit less than one page of
endnotes<small><sup>1</sup></small> (I've omitted a note about
Burma Shave<small><sup>2</sup></small>, and that reference XXX/Y means "note Y on page XXX", so
this represents about half the notes on two pages of the text, since
158 has 5 notes which I haven't transcribed. You can of course
ignore all these notes and just read the text, but if you're
interested in a careful reading, you may well want to read them,
with the concommitent risk of Wallacitis <small><sup>3</sup></small>.
The problem here is that while these notes are indicated in the
text in the same way (with numbers in the margin), they're actually
of quite different types:
<UL>
<LI>158/6 and 158/7 are sort of irrelevant asides that don't add much to the
text.
<LI>158/8 and 159/7 are translations from French.<small><sup>4</sup></small>
<LI>159/1 and 159/6 indicate references to Clare Quilty of which
there are a huge number.
<LI>159/2 and 159/3 are translations from Latin.
<LI>159/4 and 159/6 are simply explanations of English words you
might have found difficult.
</UL>
<P>	  
So, we have at least three categories: (1) translations of language you
might find difficult (2) explanations of subtle allusions in the text
[Quilty] and (3) more or less irrelevant asides that you might be
interested in. If, for instance, you knew that reference 158/8 was just
a translation from French, and you already knew what 
<I>&agrave; propos de rien</I> meant, you wouldn't need to go look
it up in the endnotes at all, but as it is your reading flow
is totally broken up while you flip to the back of the book.
<P>
The natural fix here is to have multiple types of annotation in
the main text so you can tell at a glance what you're working with. 
Foster Wallace<small><sup>5</sup></small> attacks this problem by using the notation
IYI to indicate that a note is parenthetical, but this is not wholly
satisfactory because the notation appears in the note and so your
flow is already broken (though
the fact that Wallace uses footnotes as opposed to endnotes does
help). Given the exemplars above, we might do something like:
<UL>
<LI>Translations/definitions: no notation but they're explained
in notes if you flip to the back.
<LI>Subtle allusions: numbers as superscripts on the
main text.<small><sup>6</sup></small>
<LI>Irrelevant asides: numbers in the margin.
</UL>
<P>
The point of all this is to let you ignore
the notes that you want to.<small><sup>7</sup></small>
This isn't wholly satisfactory, since we either have to intermix
the allusions and asides at the end of the book (though of
course you should be using footnotes) or have two separate
sets of notes, both of which are clumsy (even if you have
the allusions as footnotes instead of endnotes). Another
possibility with a high enough note density is to put them
on the facing page, but this chews up a lot of real estate
if the note density is sufficiently low or highly variable.<small><sup>8</sup></small>
<P>
This is of course one of the cases where technology could
really help. If you had an e-book, you could stop worrying
about how the note text (as opposed to the indicator in the
main text) was rendered. And if notes simply popped up
when you selected them instead of taking the full context
switch of a new page, you could minimize the flow interruption.
Also, you could presumably program the e-book
to display only notes you were interested in,<small><sup>9</sup></small> while eliding
the ones you don't care about. Of course, this would require
there to be enough customers for e-books to bother giving them
a treatment more sophisticated than just re-rendering the
manuscript as it was typeset on the paper.
<P>
<small><sup>1.</sup> For more on endnotes see <A HREF="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2007/05/against_endnote.html">Rescorla 07</A></small>
<BR>
<small><sup>2.</sup> Famous for progressive road advertising signs, see
<A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burma-Shave">1925-1963</A>.</small>
<BR>
<small><sup>3.</sup> After David Foster Wallace; 
observation due to Hovav Shacham.</small>
<BR>
<small><sup>4.</sup>159/6 is also a translation, but the primary
purpose of the note is to point us at Quilty.</small>
<BR>
<small><sup>5.</sup> 
<A HREF="http://www.amazon.com/Everything-More-Compact-Infinity-Discoveries/dp/0393326292/ref=si3_rdr_bb_product">Everything and More: A Compact
History of Infinity</A>.</small>
<BR>
<small><sup>6.</sup> Given the particular nature of many of these
allusions, it might make sense to mark Quilty references with
a symbol rather than a number.
</small>
<BR>
<small><sup>7.</sup> But of course this creates a hierarchy that's
fixed in the text. This is sort of inherent in the fact that things
are printed on paper, unless you want to have them printed in
color/somehow plane polarize and wear filters on your glasses or 
something.</small>
<BR>
<small><sup>8.</sup> None of this applies to a book like <A HREF="http://www.amazon.com/Pale-Fire-Vladimir-Nabokov/dp/0679723420">Pale Fire</A> where the
notes are part of the text; Shacham again.
</small> 
<BR>
<small><sup>9.</sup> Note that you could also use colors, but many
e-paper displays, such as the <A HREF="http://www.amazon.com/Kindle-Amazons-Wireless-Reading-Device/dp/B000FI73MA/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=electronics&qid=1209530092&sr=8-1">Kindle</A>, don't have color displays, and since such a
small fraction of the text will be color, this would add significantly to the cost of
goods.
</small>]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>Traders and testosterone</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/04/traders_and_tes.html" />
<modified>2008-04-29T05:24:50Z</modified>
<issued>2008-04-29T05:23:22Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1180</id>
<created>2008-04-29T05:23:22Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">In the April 22 PNAS, Coates and Herbert report on a study of the correlation between testosterone/cortisol levels and performance by traders: Little is known about the role of the endocrine system in financial risk taking. Here, we report the...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>Misc</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[In the April 22 PNAS, Coates and Herbert <A HREF="http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/105/16/6167">report</A> on a study of the correlation
between testosterone/cortisol levels and performance by traders:
<BLOCKQUOTE>
Little is known about the role of the endocrine system in financial
risk taking. Here, we report the findings of a study in which we
sampled, under real working conditions, endogenous steroids from a
group of male traders in the City of London. We found that a trader's
morning testosterone level predicts his day's profitability. We also
found that a trader's cortisol rises with both the variance of his
trading results and the volatility of the market. Our results suggest
that higher testosterone may contribute to economic return, whereas
cortisol is increased by risk. Our results point to a further
possibility: testosterone and cortisol are known to have cognitive and
behavioral effects, so if the acutely elevated steroids we observed
were to persist or increase as volatility rises, they may shift risk
preferences and even affect a trader's ability to engage in rational
choice.
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
I don't have access to the paper (it's behind the PNAS paywall), so I
don't know if they address the obvious <A
HREF="http://www.greatspeculations.com/?p=4">correlation/causation
issues</A>. If it's just the case that better results result
in increased testosterone levels, that's not very interesting.
<P>
What's more interesting is the suggestion that
there's some set of cognitive enhancements that would make you a
a better trader. One interesting question is whether these
traders are outperforming the market (contra the <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_market_hypothesis">efficient market hypothesis</A>)
or just themselves. Even more interesting would be the
(implied) claim that performance increases because of
more risk-taking behavior. As I understand it, the general
on conventional gambling is that it's not really to your
benefit to get more aggressive and/or risk-taking.]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>Well, that didn&apos;t take long</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/04/well_that_didnt.html" />
<modified>2008-04-23T01:00:11Z</modified>
<issued>2008-04-23T01:00:12Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1179</id>
<created>2008-04-23T01:00:12Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Nalgene is announcing they are going to phase out their polycarbonate bottles: ROCHESTER, N.Y. (April 18, 2008) - In response to consumer demand, Nalgene will phase out production of its Outdoor line of polycarbonate containers that include the chemical Bisphenol-A...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>Gear</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[Nalgene is 
<A HREF="http://www.nalgene-outdoor.com/">announcing</A>
they are going to phase out their polycarbonate bottles:
<BLOCKQUOTE>
ROCHESTER, N.Y. (April 18, 2008) - In response to consumer
demand, Nalgene will phase out production of its Outdoor line of
polycarbonate containers that include the chemical Bisphenol-A (BPA)
over the next several months, it announced today. Nalgene's
existing product mix, including the recently launched Everyday line,
already features a number of containers made from materials that do
not contain BPA.
<P>
"We have always been focused on responding to the needs and
concerns of our customers," said Steven Silverman, general
manager of the Nalgene business. "With 10 different product lines
in several different materials, we have the largest bottle offering on
the market today. By eliminating containers containing BPA from our
consumer product mix, our customers can have confidence that their
needs are being met."
<P>
The company recently unveiled its Everyday line, an assortment of
bottles manufactured with Eastman's Tritan copolyester. The
line includes favorites such as the OTG ("On the Go"), the
iconic 32-ounce Wide Mouth and the Grip-N-Gulp sippy cup. Tritan is
impact resistant, withstands a wide range of temperatures and does not
contain BPA. The new Everyday products are already available in stores
and will be available through www.nalgene-outdoor.com next month.
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
I guess once you have an alternative, it's pretty easy to get rid of
the offending product. I wonder if Nalge will start lobbying for
a ban on BPA now.
]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>Automatic exploit generation</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/04/automatic_explo.html" />
<modified>2008-04-21T13:42:42Z</modified>
<issued>2008-04-21T13:35:34Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1178</id>
<created>2008-04-21T13:35:34Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">In any cost/benefit analysis of vulnerability policy, we have to factor in the impact of exploitation that results from fixing the vulnerability. In particular, if you provide a full description of the vulnerability at the same time as you patch...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>SYSSEC</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[In any cost/benefit analysis of vulnerability policy, we have
to factor in the impact of exploitation that results from
fixing the vulnerability. In particular, if you provide
a full description of the vulnerability at the same time
as you patch it, then it's generally easy for an attacker
to construct an exploit. Since patch distribution and installation
can take between hours and weeks, this gives the attacker
a significant window of opportunity to mount attacks before
people patch their machines. 
<P>
A natural response to this is to simply release patches but
not descriptions of vulnerabilities, on the theory that the patches
disclose less. It's obvious that 
this isn't true with open source systems, since it's trivial to examine 
a given change and determine what attack
it's designed to stop, but there have also been reports that
attackers reverse engineer binary patches (in some cases
within hours) to construct exploits. In this year's USENIX,
Brumley et al. take this to its logical conclusion and describe
a <A hREF="http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dbrumley/pubs/apeg.pdf">technique</A>
for automatically generating exploits based on patches.
This doesn't really change the situation much as far as I can tell; it
was widely believed this was possible, and while this tool takes
seconds to minutes instead of hours, it was never plausible that you'd
get complete patch deployment inside of 12-24 hours anyway, so shaving
a few hours off the attacker time may not make much of a
difference. 
<P>
The authors describe a number of techniques (obfuscation, encrypted
patches, P2P patch distribution) one might imagine
using to reduce the impact of fast attack generation, and 
conclude (correctly IMO) they're not that likely to work. As I understand it,
the critical path item in patch installation for
important systems isn't obtaining the patch but testing it
on sacrificial systems to make sure it doesn't introduce instability,
and that creates an inherent lag that probably can't be removed 
with a new distribution method.
<P>
Another alternative (though it goes against the trend in recent
practice) is to be less
aggressive about releasing patches for vulnerabilities that haven't already been
disclosed. The faster that attackers can respond to new
vulnerabilities by comparison to defenders, the more that fixes
released in an orderly fashion look like zero-day vulnerabilities
and so the less attractive it looks to fix vulns that aren't
generally known (<A HREF="http://www.rtfm.com/bugrate.pdf">Res04</A>
has some analysis of this issue.)]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>What the heck is Format Preserving Encryption?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/04/what_the_heck_i_1.html" />
<modified>2008-04-21T00:52:10Z</modified>
<issued>2008-04-20T16:43:39Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1176</id>
<created>2008-04-20T16:43:39Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain"> Voltage (full disclosure: I have a number of friends there and I&apos;m on their TAB) have released a technology they call Format-Preserving Encryption (FPE). The basic technology here is fairly old and is described in a paper by Black...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>COMSEC</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[
Voltage (full disclosure: I have a number of friends there and
I'm on their TAB) have released a technology they call
<A HREF="http://www.voltage.com/securedata/index.htm">Format-Preserving
Encryption</A> (FPE). The basic technology here is fairly old
and is described in a <A HREF="http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/black00ciphers.html">paper</A> by Black and Rogaway, 
but as far as I know, this is the first attempt to try to
put it together in a single commercial package. Below I attempt to
describe some of the relevant technical issues, which are sort of 
interesting.
<P>
<I>Why FPE?</I>
<BR>
The use case for FPE is simple: say you have a database that contains
information with multiple levels of sensitivity. So, for instance,
if you're Amazon you might have a customer database that any
employee can access but you'd like the credit card numbers to
be accessible only to employees that really need it.
<P>
The classic approach here would be to use database access controls.
This works well as long as you trust the DB
server, but if, for instance, you want to send a copy of the
DB to someone else, then you may not be able to trust their
server, so you need to redact the database, which can be a pain.
Another problem here is that sometimes sensitive information
like CCNs is used for customer identification, which means you
can't just redact the CCN. Rather, you need to replace it with
something that's unique but doesn't leak the CCN itself.
And of course, if someone compromises your database server, then
all bets are off. 
<P>
<I>The problem with simple encryption</I>
<BR>
The natural alternative is to use encryption. Encrypting the whole
database doesn't help, because you want users to have access
to most of the database, just not to the sensitive fields.
So, what you need to do is encrypt just the sensitive fields.
This turns out to be trickier than it looks.
<P>
For example let's say we want to encrypt the social security number
<code>123 45 6789</code> using AES-ECB. So, we might do:
<UL>
<LI>Encode into ASCII to give <code>31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39</code>. 
<LI>Pad with <code>00</code> to give <code>31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 00 00 00 00 00 00 00</code>.			
<LI>Encrypt with AES to give <code>77 6e 2c a5 02 17 7a 5b 19 e4 28 65 26 f3 7e 14</code>
</UL>
<P>
This kind of sucks. Not only have we managed to start with a 9 digit string
and end up with a 128-bit random-appearing value, none of the bytes of
the output are ASCII digits. So, if our database or database software
is expecting to have values for this field that look like SSNs,
we've just broken that invariant.
<P>
The source of the problem, of course, is that we're using a block
cipher in ECB mode, and most block ciphers come in a small number of sizes (64,
128, and 256 bits are the standard ones). A block cipher just
randomly maps the input space onto the output space, so 
ECB mode encryption effectively selects a random b-bit value (where b
is the block size). The smaller the fraction of the possible
values that are valid, the higher the probability that the output
will be invalid. To take the specific case of SSNs, there are 
approximately 2^{30} valid values (if we think of the trailing
zeros as not counting), so the chance of producing a valid
value by random chance is vanishingly small (order 2^{-98}).
<P>
One thing you might think would make sense would be to use a different
mode than ECB, say counter. The problem with counter mode in this case
is that you need to use a different section of keystream (or a
different key) to encrypt each value to avoid easy cryptanalytic
attacks. So, you need some per-value distinguisher that gets carried
along with the ciphertext, which expands the amount of storage you
need for the encrypted values, even as it keeps the ciphertext small.
<P>
<I>Luby-Rackoff</I>
<BR>
As noted above, our big problem is our block size is too large.
As noted above, even though SSNs are 9 digits long, they are sparsely
packed (for instance letters aren't allowed), so there are
approximately 2^{30} valid SSNs, as long as we use a better mapping
than straight 1-1 digit correspondence. For instance, think of the 9
digit SSN as a value from 1 to 999,999,999 (not all 9-digit numbers are valid
SSNs, but for simplicity, let's pretend they are.)
We can represent that in
binary as a 30 bit quantity. If we had a 32 bit block cipher, we could
encrypt this value with less than 10% expansion, which might be OK
under some circumstances (we'll describe how to do better below).
<P>
Ordinary block ciphers have blocks much larger than this, of
course, but it turns out that there's a generic technique for
making block ciphers of arbitrary size (actually, even values
only), called <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luby-Rackoff">Luby-Rackoff</A> (L-R) . The nice thing about
L-R is that it's a general construction based on a 
<I>pseudorandom function</I> (PRF), which we know how to
build with standard cryptographic techniques. 
<P>
<I>Cycle Walking</I>
<BR>
We can use L-R to build a block cipher with a block size of any
number of bits we want, but this still means that our function
produces 2^b possible values where b is the block size, but
this generally won't line up perfectly with the set of values
we want to encipher. To return to our SSN example, we have
10^9 possible values, which means we need a block size of
30 bits, which implies a set size of 2^{30} = 1073741824.
So, for any given input value, there's about a 7% chance that
it will encrypt to an invalid SSN (greater than 10^9).
If the database (or software) is really aggressive about
validity checking, then you'll have an unacceptable rejection
rate.
<P>
To deal with this issue, Black and Rogaway describe a technique they call "cycle-walking". The idea is that we start with an initially
valid value (1-999,999,999) and then encrypt it.  If the ciphertext is
also valid, we stop and emit it.  If it's invalid (greater than
999,999,999), we encrypt again, and repeat until we have a valid
value.  This gives us an encryption procedure that is guaranteed to
produce an in-range output. Decryption is done in the same way.
<P><I>Bottom Line</I>
<BR>
So, why can't we just use cycle-walking? Because 
it only works well if the block size is
approximately right&mdash;if the size of the valid set is
a lot smaller than the block size of the cipher, then
you have to do a lot of iterations in order to get an in-range
result. So, you can't use a 64-bit block cipher in order
to encrypt an SSN because you end up having to do a
prohibitive number if iterations; you need to use L-R
to construct a block cipher of approximately the right size
and then use cycle-walking to shave off the last few values.
<P>
<B>UPDATE</B>: Paul Hoffman pointed out to me privately that it's not clear how
this all relates to FPE. Basically, FPE means the combination of L-R plus cycle
walking. This lets you do one-to-one and onto encryption for most set sizes.
If the set size is really small, there's another technique (also due to Black
and Rogaway): you encrypt all possible input values and then sort the
ciphertexts. You then use the index of the ciphertext in the sorted list
as the encrypted value. This is obviously prohibitively expensive unless
the number of possible values is small because it requires encrypting
all possible values and then keeping a very large mapping table.]]>

</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>The beginning of the end of food grade polycarbonates?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/04/the_beginning_o.html" />
<modified>2008-04-20T05:18:42Z</modified>
<issued>2008-04-20T05:17:57Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1175</id>
<created>2008-04-20T05:17:57Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Opinion has been shifting against polycarbonate plastics for a while now, and now Canada has decided to ban polycarbonate plastics for baby bottles: OTTAWA -- The Canadian government moved Friday to ban polycarbonate infant bottles, the most popular variety on...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>Gear</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[Opinion has been shifting against polycarbonate plastics for a while
now, and now Canada has decided to 
<A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/business/worldbusiness/19plastic.html?ref=health">ban</A> polycarbonate plastics for
baby bottles:
<BLOCKQUOTE>
OTTAWA -- The Canadian government moved Friday to ban polycarbonate
infant bottles, the most popular variety on the market, after it
officially declared one of their chemical ingredients toxic.
<P>
The action, by the departments of health and environment, is the first
taken by any government against bisphenol-a, or BPA, a widely used
chemical that mimics a human hormone. It has induced long-term changes
in animals exposed to it through tests.
<P>
...
<P>
The health minister, Tony Clement, told reporters that after reviewing
150 research papers and conducting its own studies, his department
concluded that children up to the age of 18 months were at the most
risk from the chemical. Mr. Clement said that animal studies suggested
"behavioral and neural symptoms later in life."
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
Clement claims that adults aren't at significant risk (note: I haven't
really reviewed the literature myself at all), but MEC
and Patagonia have already pulled polycarbonate drinking bottles
(aka Nalgene bottles) off their shelves, and Nalgene has already introduced a new line of bottles called
"Everyday" which aren't based on BPA but on Eastman's 
<A HREF="http://www.eastman.com/NR/rdonlyres/9E4B6C09-6E35-4DEF-A310-51D32AAA486D/0/MBS392.pdf">Tritan</A>, which is supposed to be comparably
tough to polycarbonate.
Also, according to this
article, Charles Shumer has introduced a bill to ban the use
of BPA-based polycarbonates in food and drink applications.
Industry has been pretty actively opposing this kind of regulation,
but given that alternatives are starting to appear, I suspect we've
reached an inflection point where they'll just start replacing
polycarbonate in most applications instead.


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</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>Metered Internet?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/04/metered_interne.html" />
<modified>2008-04-19T03:52:22Z</modified>
<issued>2008-04-19T03:52:24Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1174</id>
<created>2008-04-19T03:52:24Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">At the FCC hearing yesterday, there was a lot of talk about metered Internet. (See also Rob Malan Rob Malan arguing that net neutrality legislation will inevitable result in metered Internet service). It&apos;s certainly true that metered Internet is one...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>Networking</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[At the FCC hearing yesterday, there was a lot of talk about metered
Internet. (See also Rob Malan Rob Malan <A HREF="http://asert.arbornetworks.com/2008/04/net-neutrality-are-you-ready-for-it/">arguing</A>
that net neutrality legislation will inevitable result in metered Internet service).
It's certainly true 
that metered Internet is one possible outcome
of network neutrality regulation, but I'm not convinced that it's
the only one. It's interesting to note that at the same time as
we're arguing about this, all the major wireless service providers
(which have historically been incredibly stingy about 
per-minute charging) have recently rolled out unlimited voice offerings.
<P>
Now, you could certainly argue (as Rob's argument implies) that there's
an upper limit on how much bandwidth can be used by voice and 
so as the technology has improved, it's become cost effective to
offer unlimited voice service, but that the bandwidth consumed by
video will be much greater. On the other hand, just last year
Apple pushed Cingular/AT&T into offering an unmetered data plan for
the iPhone, and apps like YouTube for iPhone clearly encourage users
to consume larger amounts of bandwidth than they would if just 
checking their email. Now, obviously the cell providers have a lot
of latitude to manage the data portions of their network, but it still
seems to me that there are a lot of factors in play here and that
metered Internet is not the only possible outcome, even in a more
highly regulated regime.








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</content>
</entry>

<entry>
<title>Aren&apos;t lots of Jelly Bellys already disgusting?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/04/arent_lots_of_j.html" />
<modified>2008-04-16T05:16:11Z</modified>
<issued>2008-04-16T05:16:11Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1173</id>
<created>2008-04-16T05:16:11Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Jelly Belly has just brought out their BeanBoozled product: BeanBoozled jelly beans come in 20 flavors, 10 weird and wild flavors matched up with 10 look-alike tasty flavors. Is the black jelly bean Licorice, or is it Skunk Spray? Perhaps...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>Food</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[Jelly Belly has just brought out their <A HREF="http://jellybelly.com/Cultures/en-US/Shop/CandyDetails.htm?CS_ProductID=98677&CS_Category=BeanBoozled&CS_Catalog=B2C">BeanBoozled</A> product:
<BLOCKQUOTE>
BeanBoozled jelly beans come in 20 flavors, 10 weird and wild flavors
matched up with 10 look-alike tasty flavors. Is the black jelly bean
Licorice, or is it Skunk Spray? Perhaps the blue bean is Toothpaste
flavor, or maybe it's delicious Berry Blue. Think you can tell
them apart? We dare you!
<P>
You might not know when you will be bamboozled by a weird flavor. A
key on the back of each box gives clues to the surprises found inside,
but the beans look so similar, every bite will be a surprising dare.
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
I actually already have this problem with Jelly Belly bulk
packs. Mrs. Guesswork buys these ginormous tubs of mixed jelly beans
at Costco and I already find a pretty substantial fraction of the
beans (cafe latte, cappuccino, a&w cream soda, licorice, ...)
revolting, and they look a lot like other flavors that I like,
so I have to be on my guard anyway.
<P>
On a related topic, why when you go to Costco do they insist
on selling you mixed packs of cliff bars, power bars, etc. Are there
really people who like vanilla crisp power bars, or is this just
some scheme to get you to throw away 1/3 of the bars so you buy
more that much sooner?"




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</entry>

<entry>
<title>What&apos;s nice about a GPS watch?</title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/04/whats_nice_abou.html" />
<modified>2008-04-15T05:01:11Z</modified>
<issued>2008-04-15T05:01:11Z</issued>
<id>tag:www.educatedguesswork.org,2008://1.1172</id>
<created>2008-04-15T05:01:11Z</created>
<summary type="text/plain">Joe Hall asks why one would want a GPS-enabled watch. Roughly speaking, there are three features I want: Altitude measurement (though note you can get sports watches with a barometric altimeter, which is actually more accurate, at least when you...</summary>
<author>
<name>ekr</name>
<url>http://www.educatedguesswork.org/</url>
<email>ekr@rtfm.com</email>
</author>
<dc:subject>Gear</dc:subject>
<content type="text/html" mode="escaped" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/">
<![CDATA[Joe Hall <A HREF="http://www.educatedguesswork.org/movabletype/archives/2008/04/garmin_405_out.html#comments">asks</A>
why one would want a GPS-enabled watch. Roughly speaking, there are three features I
want:
<UL>
<LI>Altitude measurement (though note you can get sports watches with a barometric
altimeter, which is actually more accurate, at least when you want to measure
elevation gain;/lost).
<LI>Speed and distance. It's nice to be able to get some sense of how fast
you're running and I find the GPS more convenient and comfortable than the
foot pod pedometers that are the alternative.
<LI>Performance comparison. For my money, the coolest feature of a GPS
sports watch is that you can get real time display of where you stand
compared to a previous performance on the same course, which is a lot 
easier than remembering your time at multiple checkpoints. I can't figure
out whether this is really useful&mdash;in fact I suspect it encourages
you to push your workouts too hard to beat your previous pace&mdash;but it's still
pretty sweet.
</UL>
<P>
In principle a gizmo like this might be useful for getting you un-lost, but
the fact that you don't have a real map, just a view of where you've been,
makes it pretty hard to use for anything other than backtracking. If,
for instance, you're doing a loop and there are multiple trails but not
a dense enough network that you can just vector in on your start 
point directionally, than without a trail map a GPS is pretty useless. Pretty
good for out and back trips, though.




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