Why hasn't Hezbollah killed more Israelis?

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In the past eight days, Hezbollah has fired nearly a thousand rockets into Israel, causing 15 civilian casualties--less than 2 people per hundred missiles--which doesn't seem like a very efficient way to kill people. The basic problem (assuming you're Hezbollah) seems to be that the accuracy of the missiles they're using is pretty bad, order of a few kilometers. Still, if you look at aerial photos of Israel, it's pretty densely populated. You'd think you could hit and destroy inhabited houses more than 2% of the time. Anyone have any more information on this?

2 Comments

I don't think the population density is that high in the immediate vicinity of Lebanon's border. I suspect that Hezbollah doesn't have that many longer-range missiles, and is instead increasing the range of their shorter-range missiles by, among other things, reducing their payloads. That would explain the relatively low casualty figures from the missiles raining down on, say, Haifa--weak payloads make for few casualties.

Killing people is also not necessarily their goal. A dead person is sad, scary, and final. But not directly helpful to their cause. They get a lot more of an effect from the thousands of other people who stay in shelters all day, the closed factories, and the many people escaping to the southern areas of the country.

Killing more people (I'm not talking about a very drastic increase, of course. But that won't be easy to achieve anyway) wouldn't really increase the terror and damage, but may actually help Israel on the international PR front. And it may push things into an actual all-out war instead of the shows of aggression there are now, something which neither side particularly wants.

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