Of course, for students of the economic psychology literature, this result shouldn't be too surprising. The data consistently demonstrates that people's ability to estimate quantities is fairly bad and is improved by systematic techniques for arriving at the answers. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean that your second intuition is any better, but if you're actually trying to consider the problem rather than just use your gut, then it's probably worth going with that answer...
On not trusting your intuition
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